Sunday April 26, 2020
Topic: Homebuilders and the Pandemic
Bio: CEO of Stanley Martin Homes
Stanley Martin is one of the largest homebuilding companies in the mid-Atlantic region, building in Washington D.C., Charlottesville, Richmond, and Raleigh. Stanley Martin Homes is based in D.C, and is part of the Daiwa House Group, one of the largest construction and development companies in the world with over $40 billion of annual revenues. The Stanley Martin Homes subsidiary has a little more than $1 billion of LTM revenues. They also own a large residential mortgage banking company, originating about $2.5 billion per year. Steve spends most of his time on production housing but he has some insights to what’s happening in the mortgage world as well.
Topic: The energy market and the pandemic
Bio: Vice Chairman of IHS Markit and Author of The Prize and The Quest and forthcoming The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations
Dan Yergin and Mark Gunning QA
Topic: The Oil Market
Bio: President of Hunt Oil
Topic: Summer Camp and the pandemic
Bio: Camp Director and Owner of Camp Horseshoe, Rhinelander Wisconsin
Jordan Shiner and Dr. Cyril Wecht QA
Topic: Multilateral Institutions Response to the Pandemic
Bio: Former Chief Economist at Salomon Brothers and Managing Director of the IMF
John Lipsky QA
Topic: Sociology and the Pandemic – Who is most at risk and what are the implications of people living alone and in isolation.
Bio: Professor of Sociology at NYU and author of Heatwave and Going Solo
Eric Klinenberg QA
Dr. Inderpal Randhawa
Topic: How to keep running a doctor’s office for children despite a pandemic
Bio: Board certified in 5 fields – adult and pediatric pulmonology and immunology, solid organ transplantation; Research scientist, several academic appointments, over 100 peer review publications in the fields of lung and immune diseases; Business entrepreneur – have built from the ground up – a unique translational science facility in S. California focused on orphan disease areas – this unique facility is focused on artificial intelligence, machine learning modeling, and the implications of translating clinical research data and basic science research data in the fields of immunology, allergy and lung disease.
Dr. Inderpal Randhawa QA
Dr. Cyril Wecht
Topic: What can pathology teach us about Covid19?
Bio: He is one of the most famous forensic pathologists in the US, he has been president of the American Academy of Forensic Sciences and the American College of Legal Medicine, and has served as the Allegheny County Coroner and Medical Examiner for the Pittsburgh MSA. Author of over 16 books including
Grave Secrets: A Leading Forensic Expert Reveals the Startling Truth about O.J. Simpson, David Koresh, Vincent Foster, and Other Sensational Cases
Dr. Cyril Wecht QA
Topic: How can we make good estimates of the parameters of the epidemic?
Bio: Retired Pfizer statistician and author of The Lady Tasting Tea and Errors, Blunders and Lies: How to Tell the Difference
The question of finding an appropriate treatment has been well thrashed out in the medical literature and the consensus is that the “gold standard” is two or more randomized controlled clinical trials. However, it takes a long time to mount such trials, and not every hospital has the additional trained personnel needed (you can’t just use interns, nurses, or medical students without such training, since so many things can go wrong during these trials). Then, there is Louis Lasagna’s law: “The number of qualified patients available for a trial is infinite while the trial is being planned. It drops to zero when the trial gets underway and goes back to infinity after the trial is over.”
In the 1950’s, William Cochran proposed something he called an “observational study,” where you assign treatments to patients as they arrive, making no attempt to use random assignment. At the end of the trial, you use statistical regression methods to predict the outcome for each patient based on all the factors that might have affected the outcome—except the experimental treatment and its control. You predict the outcome for each patient from those baseline characteristics and test whether the difference between predicted and actual result was related to the treatment. Articles have appeared in medical journals that call an “observational study” any sort of trial which consists of little more than standard case histories. And so, the phrase “observational study” has gotten a bad reputation, but if you follow Cochran’s approach you can get some very good information.
David Salsburg QA
Derek Lowe QA
Questions for Speakers