Yaakov Katz
Subject: Allies Fighting Together
Bio: Former Editor in Chief of the Jerusalem Post and author of While Israel Slept
Transcript:
Larry Bernstein:
Welcome to What Happens Next. My name is Larry Bernstein. What Happens Next is a podcast which covers economics, politics, and history. Today’s topic is Allies Fighting Together. Our speaker is Yaakov Katz the former Editor in Chief of the Jerusalem Post and the author of While Israel Slept about the 10/7 massacre.
I want to learn from Yaakov about how the US and Israel are fighting together and how it is significantly different from our previous wars.
Yaakov tell us about you.
Yaakov Katz:
I have been living in Israel for 32 years. I spent 25 years in journalism. Today, I write a regular column for The Jerusalem Post and other newspapers. I was the editor in chief of the Jerusalem Post for about eight years and served as the military correspondent for 10 years. I’m also the author of four books on the Israeli military. The most recent one is called While Israel Slept, which is how Hamas surprised the most powerful military in the Middle East.
In addition, I am a senior fellow at a think tank called the Jewish People of Policy Institute in Jerusalem and co-founder of an organization called the Middle East America Dialogue, MEAD, which is a gathering of policymakers from across the Middle East, Israel and America.
Larry Bernstein:
Give us some background on the history of the US/Israeli military relationship.
Yaakov Katz:
The war called Operation Epic Fury in America and Roaring Lion in Israel, is a merger of two militaries that have never been merged in the past. The United States after the ‘60s war, began to be the primary weapon supplier and ally of Israel. But anytime that America would come to help Israel, it was for defensive measures. We saw that clearly in ‘24 when with Iran America helped defend us.
We started to see change in the 12-day war in June. Israel fought for most of that period and there was that one day that the B2 bombers sent by Donald Trump to attack the nuclear targets of Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow.
What we saw from the beginning of this war was Israel and America hand-in-hand in a total merged operation. It’s like what the United Kingdom was to the America in World War II. It’s a NATO style operation. You have command centers in Israel that the language being spoken is English. This is Israel’s first English war. Israel has adopted Zulu time, which is the time that is used by the U.S. militaries, we’re totally synchronized.
You have a very crowded airspace in the Gulf. Just so our listeners understand this, all this talk of the Strait of Hormuz. We’re talking about 35 kilometers. You have Israel flying over there and the Emiratis flying 35 kilometers away not shooting one another. There is a conductor behind this called CENTCOM.
Larry Bernstein:
In your op-ed in the Wall Street Journal you discussed the movement of Israel away from the European-American command center to CENTCOM. Could you explain its importance?
Yaakov Katz:
Israel for many years was boycotted by the Arab League. As a result, the United States, when it divides up the world based on its different commands. It has SOUTHCOM, Southern command, it has CENTCOM, which is for the entire Middle East. It has an Africa command, and European command. Israel cannot sit at the same table with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Therefore, Israel, even though geographically not in Europe, we were put into Europe.
The dramatic change came in Donald Trump’s first term in office when in 2018 the decision was made to move Israel into CENTCOM. It seemed like a mere technical detail, but it was far from it. When you compound that with the Abraham Accords of 2020, and Israel having formal diplomatic ties with the Emiratis and Bahrain, and until October 7th, 2023, on track potentially with Saudi Arabia.
All these countries sit around one table and talk to one another. You saw the first example of this in April 2024, when Iran fired its first barrage directly at Israel. It was the first time Iran directly attacked Israel. CENTCOM led a coalition that included the French, British, America and Israel, but you had Jordan and Saudi Arabia. It was unbelievable, something that you would never have imagined.
Larry Bernstein:
I want to go back to the historical relationship between Israel and the United States. In 1956, Israel joined the French and the British in a war against Egypt. There was very close ties between the French and the Israelis. The French supplied the Mirage Jets and helped Israel develop nuclear weapons. But the relationship with France deteriorated over time and America replaced it to provide military equipment and close relations. But the US State Department was still pro-Arabist and anti-Israeli, but it took, ironically, the Iranian hostage crisis to turn the state department against Iran.
Since then, the relationship with Israel has continued to grow and be mutually supportive. But there was concern that if Israel became too close to the United States, the relationship with some Arab nations would be less successful.
But what you are describing is the opposite. As U.S. relations with Israel become stronger and more integrated on the battlefield and with intelligence that the relationship with the Arabs for both the United States and Israel is improving. Is that a function of winning or does it relate to a common enemy?
Yaakov Katz:
With this president, winning is big. This president is focused on results. For example, in the 12-day war when in the first hours of the attack, which obviously Donald Trump had approved, but immediately the statement that came out of the White House was, “We got nothing to do with this. It’s not us.” But then if you look throughout the day, when Trump started to see that it was working, he was calling up journalists, talking to everyone about how amazing this is.
The United States from the inception of Israel in 1948 had an arms embargo, did not want to get involved. It was not until JFK decided to sell Israel Hawk missiles in 1962, that it started to change.
And after the 1967, Six-day War, when Charles de Gaulle imposed an arms boycott of Israel because of the war, then America stepped up in a big way. We have hit this amazing pinnacle, but we cannot fool ourselves into believing that this is the new normal. We are facing a daunting challenge down the road that we will not have a president like this, support like this, and face a massive challenge.
Larry Bernstein:
The attack on the Supreme Leader that killed him and 40 of his lieutenants. What happened?
Yaakov Katz:
America’s amassing the largest military presence in the Middle East since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. It shows how they miscalculated the President of the United States.
With that said, we are 2.5 weeks into this war and Iran still can launch missiles. I just got out of the bomb shelter because we had a missile siren go off here in Jerusalem. We had missiles that landed earlier today in the center of the country. You kill off a guy and his lieutenants, it has an impact, but it was not debilitating, and it has not stopped the regime.
Larry Bernstein:
What are you hearing about the quality of the next guy in line?
Yaakov Katz:
There’s not clarity on who is replacing who. Khamenei Jr. has not appeared in public, and it is unclear what his real state of health is and if he’s seriously wounded.
When you are doing a decapitation operation, is this person a legitimate target? It is not just about what the person has done but what they might still do.
The second question, “Can I potentially even carry this out?” You must ask about collateral damage. There is a limit to what would justify killing many innocent people to eliminate a single individual. And then who will replace that person? Khamenei, let’s say, is the right move to kill him, or keep him in place? Who could replace him and whether that person would be worse?
Khamenei took over from Khomeini in 1989, so for the last 37 years, he led Iran to become the regional hegemon, but also to become a repressive state.
Go back and watch videos in Iran, the celebration upon hearing of the death of Ali Khamenei.
Anyone who thought that Iran is just a paper tiger and cannot do anything. In Israel, the people I talked to in government and the military, they have humility. Iran is a country of 90 million people. We’re 10 million.
Larry Bernstein:
The United States is a volunteer army composed of enthusiastic warriors. The Israelis have a civilian army. Away from the ultra-religious, it is everybody. Everyone has a piece of the equity in the IDF.
Yaakov Katz:
When you have access to such a wide pool of people that gives you raw talent. And if you can identify that talent, you can utilize it. Men and women who would be the best pilots. The best language proficient analysts to study Farsi or Arabic.
The ultra-Orthodox do not serve in the numbers that they should. Most of the Israeli Arabs about 20% of Israel do not serve.
In Israel, the competition is to be in the most elite combat unit or the most elite technological intelligence unit because
Larry Bernstein:
Those guys get jobs in venture.
Yaakov Katz:
Correct. I want to gain skills that when I walk out the door after my service, I’ll get scooped up by a tech company that will pay me a six-figure salary because I have years of experience writing code and deploying cyber weapons against Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas. And that could be used to defend Meta and Goldman Sachs from cyberattacks against them.
Israeli pilots are amazing. That caliber of talent shows that selection process is remarkable, and they get the best of the best.
But the flip side of that is that you sometimes have people not in the right place. I’ll give you an example. I met with one of the IDF chiefs of staff and he said to me, “Tell me what you did in the Army.” I worked in a warehouse in the IDF. He said, “Why?”
I’m deaf in my left ear since I was born. I could not be combat. And he said, “But you’re clearly intelligent.” That was his words, not mine. You know how to write, to speak, you are fluent in English, why didn’t we take you to foreign relations or intelligence? And I said, “I had an incredible service.”
He said, “Tell me more.” I said, “I was on a base I was the only new immigrant there.” Most of them were Sephardic origin. There were some from the former Soviet Union. The idea of the IDF being a melting pot is true, and it was just an amazing experience.
We are a very multicultural, diverse society. You find in units in the IDF combat units that will have an Ethiopian Israeli, a Moroccan Israeli, an Ashkenazi Israeli, a settler, a guy from Tel Aviv, from the South, the North, rich and poor. That is a remarkable cultural societal character of the State of Israel.
Larry Bernstein:
Most Israelis that I know are Ashkenazi whose grandparents were born in Europe. When you hear complaints about settler-colonial Israel, the image that people have is that these are white, rich, Europeans dominating poor Arabs.
Yaakov Katz:
When you look at Israel today, under 50% are Ashkenazi and the rest are of Sephardic origin. And then you had the million that came in the late 80s, early 90s from the former Soviet Union, which is an influx of talent. We have about 250,000 Jews from Ethiopia. This is just the Jews. Two million Arabs, non-Jews who live here are Muslim, Christian, Druze and Bedouin. It is a very diverse society.
Larry Bernstein:
How is the Israeli public responding to this war?
Yaakov Katz:
The Israeli public in polls 80% favor this war. That will not last forever. It is tough on people in different parts of the country. People in the North right now have it really bad because of Hezbollah’s missile fire. In Jerusalem, I had one siren today. Hopefully, that’ll be the last one. Yesterday we had two. People in the center of the country in Tel Aviv have many more. If I go near the Ben-Gurion International Airport, they have had hundreds because Iran is targeting the airport.
Larry Bernstein:
I had John Bolton on the podcast and his biggest fear is that we would not finish the job.
Yaakov Katz:
A clear victory is regime change. I don’t know exactly how to achieve it. But I know that what we are doing is working. We are decapitating them and degrading their capabilities. Most Iranian people are opposed to this regime.
The missile fire will decline over time, but this is highly disruptive. I got kids at home who are not in school. They have not been in school for two and a half weeks. Then you have three-week Passover vacation. They will have missed two months of school. But if the regime falls, this changes everything.
Larry Bernstein:
Explain what that means.
Yaakov Katz:
To me, the world changes. We have never had an enemy like Iran that was so bent on our destruction, that built up proxies purely to destroy us, that undermined countries in our vicinity, that prevented us to normalize relations. When this regime is gone, not only is the nuclear and the ballistic missile threats gone but the entire apparatus of the proxies like Hezbollah will die. The Houthis in Yemen, Hamas, Islamic Jihad in Gaza, the militias in Iraq, everything changes.
You have an opportunity for stability. From the Israeli perspective, the opportunities for normalization in the region, with us in Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States, and even talk about the Palestinian issue. We can make moves with the Palestinians right now because we would be afraid, we can’t take risks when Iran is looming on the horizon. Once we do not have the big threats on the external, we can deal with the internal.
I said to my kids in the beginning of this war, “I want you to remember two things running up and down the bomb shelter.” I said, “Number one, these are missiles are being launched to kill us.” It is sobering. Two, “This is a moment in time history when the whole world can change.”
People, say “There wasn’t an imminent threat, we didn’t have to attack now.” Imminent depends on your perspective. If you talk to the Emiratis today, they have been hit by over 2000 projectiles and drones. The threats are not yet imminent for the United States, but it’s imminent for people here. I do not understand what they want us to do. Wait for them to have a nuclear weapon, wait for them to have 10,000 ballistic missiles. Look at what they can do with just 3,000.
Look at the Strait of Hormuz. Everybody is bent out of shape. Flow of energy, gas, oil, et cetera. Now imagine they had 10,000 missiles, 30,000 drones, and nuclear weapons. What would happen then to the Strait of Hormuz, Iran would snap a finger and its closed. You would not be able to do a thing like with North Korea. The Russia-Ukraine war raged for more than four years, and the world cannot do anything because Russia has nuclear weapons.
Joe Kent and people who are attacking the war and going off against Israel that we dragged America into this. It’s shortsightedness and misunderstanding of what the nature of this challenge.
Larry Bernstein:
What would you tell Americans about why this war is in America’s strategic interest?
Yaakov Katz:
If I’m an American and I care just about the cost of gas. And now it’s gone up 20%. It’s painful. Look at what the Iranians would be empowered to do to the global energy market. If they have nuclear weapons. How much more would people eventually be paying for a gallon of gas?
If I’m an American and I care just about the security and safety of the United States. Look at Iran’s missile capability. This is not just about Israel. This is not just about the Gulf States. They are creating a missile capability that already reaches Europe. If Israel is just the problem, why do they need missiles that can reach Europe? Cypriots have already been targeted and Turkey. Assassination attempts against American political leaders: John Bolton, Mike Pompeo, and Donald Trump.
We could wait and sit back and say it will not come our way, but we could also be strategic and recognize that the moment the missile is already able to reach the East Coast of the United States, it’s too late. This is an enemy of the United States that has long been engaged in killing Americans. The Marine Barracks bombings in Beirut in 1983, the Khobar Tower bombings a few years later, and the IEDs that maimed and murdered Americans throughout the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Larry Bernstein:
How do the Saudi and Gulf public respond to this war?
Yaakov Katz:
In the beginning, the public there wanted this over fast. We are seeing a shift. The Gulf states turned to the President of the United States and said, “Go all the way. Bring down this regime.”
For decades, we were conditioned to believe that Israel is the source of instability, that it is the conflict with the Palestinians. It is the so-called occupation. It is the Ashkenazi colonialist presence in this land that leads to instability. I do not think there’s a single person today in the Middle East who believes that anymore. There are people in America and Europe who do, but I don’t think there’s anyone here in this region who does. Whether you are in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Doha, or Kuwait City, you understand that your enemy is Iran, that if Iran’s not there, it is a different ballgame.
That is what creates this amazing opportunity right now. You’re seeing this shift in this recognition from MBS, Muhammad bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, calling Donald Trump to say, “Keep going. Don’t Stop.”
Larry Bernstein:
It seems that the Saudis made some poor planning. They built one pipeline, they needed three or four. They should have dredged part of Oman and have a separate avenue for tankers to get across. Any thoughts on military strategy for the Arabs?
Yaakov Katz:
Arab countries, particularly the Emirates and Saudi Arabia, have built up a powerful military. The Emiratis were one of the first countries to buy the THAAD, the terminal high altitude aerial defense system that is effective against ballistic missiles. They have been using American made helicopters and fighter jets to shoot down the drones. Saudi Arabia is not engaging offensively in this war. Their concern is that if they were to attack Iran that would lead Iran to escalate and attack the oil and gas depots that will disrupt the flow of energy and undermine the countries themselves. It could be that Donald Trump will say to them, “I also want to see skin in the game.”
Larry Bernstein:
What are you optimistic about Israel as relates to this war?
Yaakov Katz:
I’m optimistic about three things. One is this new military alliance between Israel and the United States. It is incredible what we can achieve as two nations working together.
I am optimistic about the security if the regime is toppled. And for the freedom of the Iranian people, let us not forget those brave people that fought for their country in January, many of them lost their lives.
Israeli men and women are going through this again. They have not healed from the previous trauma. The resilience that you see here is remarkable. It shows what this country is about. It is unbelievable. Israel has proven that it is a superpower. We have paid a horrible price. I wish we could have avoided it, but this is one hell of a comeback.
Larry Bernstein:
Thanks to Yaakov for joining us.
If you missed it, I am doing a series of podcasts on the war in Iran.
The last podcast topic was what will Define Success and Failure in the Iran War with Hal Brands who is a Professor at Johns Hopkins. Hal discussed our objectives in the war and ways to improve our negotiating position.
I also did a podcast on the Opening the Strait of Hormuz with James Holmes who is a Professor of Maritime Strategy at the US Naval War College about ways the US Navy can open the Strait of Hormuz.
I had a podcast on Fine Tuning the OODA Loop: Observe, Orient, Decide, Act Loop to Win the War in Iran with Israeli Brig. Gen. Eran Ortal. He explained how the American and Israeli military have moved their command center to the battlefield so that the Iranian targets can be destroyed before they have time to react.
We started the series with former Trump National Security Advisor John Bolton about what steps we need to take to win the war.
You can find our previous episodes and transcripts on our website
whathappensnextin6minutes.com. Please follow us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Thank you for joining us today, goodbye.
Check out our previous episode, What will Success and Failure be in the Iran War, here.
