Amir Avivi
Subject: Evaluating Success on the Iranian Battlefield
Bio: Retired Israeli Brigadier General and Chairman of the Israel Defense and Security Forum and author of No Retreat: How to Secure Israel for Generations to Come
Transcript:
Larry Bernstein:
Welcome to What Happens Next. My name is Larry Bernstein. What Happens Next is a podcast which covers economics, politics, and history. Today’s topic is Evaluating Success on the Iranian Battlefield.
Our speaker is Amir Avivi who is a retired Israeli Brigadier General and the Chairman of the Israel Defense and Security Forum – ISDF. Amir is the author of a recent book entitled No Retreat: How to Secure Israel for Generations to Come.
I want to learn how Israel was able to achieve surprise with its initial attack of the Iranian leadership. I plan to discuss the implications of a compromised Iranian command and control structure and why Iran is attacking its neutral neighbors.
Did the United States and Israel make the correct decision to go to war with Iran?
Amir Avivi:
Iran has been the biggest global perpetrator of terror and this regime wants the complete destruction of the US and Israel. They are not just talking. They were moving fast towards the production of nuclear bombs.
They build proxies: Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, militias in Iraq, terrorizing the whole Middle East and surrounding Israel with a ring of fire. They are responsible of killing multiple Americans. This regime needs to be destroyed like the Nazis.
It is a wise decision to bring a change of regime to create stability and prosperity for both Americans and Israelis.
Larry Bernstein:
How did the Israeli public react to the war?
Amir Avivi:
Israelis are happy. For many years, we were terrorized by Iran. In the 12-day war, we had the chance to see the might of Israel and dominate Iranian skies within two days. Something that Russia has not been able to do throughout the Russian-Ukrainian war, and they are a hundred miles, not a thousand miles.
Once Israel showed that it can be done, the Iranians crumbled from the inside and outside. Even the Europeans reinstated harsh sanctions on them. This reality brought the demonstrations in Iran, unfortunately, also the killing of demonstrations, tens of thousands, and the promise of President Trump that help is on its way.
It is important to understand the US is not fighting for Israel. The US is fighting for the US, for the security of every single American. We see results in four days. This regime is on its knees and it’s not something easy to do. Iran is a huge and an advanced country. And yet, we manage again to dominate Iranian skies within 48 hours. Now we are dismantling the capabilities of this regime.
Larry Bernstein:
Tell us about the initial surprise attack that decapitated the Iranian leadership?
Amir Avivi:
The most surprising thing in this attack was that we surprised them. We surprised them in the 12-day war. We decapitated many of their leaders in the army and government and to surprise them once again and kill their leader and 40 of their leading military and political figures is amazing. It required accurate intelligence and unique military capabilities. Israel must attack from afar and precisely and simultaneously like we did in the 12-day war.
I want to talk about this state of mind of this regime. When you look at the way they behave, it seems like it does not make sense. They made plans to destroy Israel, but then Israel attacked them. Israel showed complete superiority over them and then the US joined the fight. The US attacked them with strategic bombers destroying their nuclear sites. So, you would have expected that the regime would say, “Okay, these guys are much stronger than we are. Let’s stay quiet and wait until President Trump finishes his three remaining years in office, and maybe also wait for Netanyahu to move on.” But no, a minute after the 12-day war, the Iranians started rebuilding their nuclear sites and manufacturing more ballistic missiles. And even when the US started amassing a huge naval force in the Middle East and Israel was sending clear messages that they were going to attack again, they ignored reality.
We are currently celebrating Purim and we read the story of Mordecai and Esther and how the Jews were saved in Persia, a similar story.
You are talking about Iran, huge, beautiful country, amazing history, people, food, oil, and everything. And they are obsessed with one thing, destroying Israel and the US, the little Satan and big Satan.
Iran has limited water supplies and inadequate electricity. Their currency is broken, and their economy is in terrible shape. But they do not care. In the past year, Iran funded Hezbollah with $700 million. Where did they get the money from? They are not functioning as a country. Just as it was 2,500 years ago, the same story, same mentality, and it is going to end the same. Haman and his sons were hanged, and this regime will also end. There will be an unconditional surrender in this war. It is not going to stop until they surrender.
Larry Bernstein:
Going back to your metaphor of the biblical story related to the Jewish holiday of Purim. Esther persuaded the Persian King to eliminate Haman who was his evil chief of staff. Why was the Iranian Supreme Leader incapable of appreciating the importance of the public unrest as witnessed with the demonstrations, that the United States sent a fleet of warships, and yet the regime decided to reject the overtures of the Trump negotiators. Why didn’t the leadership make better decisions?
Amir Avivi:
No, I think the analogy here is wrong. The supreme leader is parallel to a Haman, to the evil guy in the bible that wanted to destroy the Jewish people. Khamenei years ago, when he was interviewed was asked, “What are your plans? Khamenei said only one thing, “to destroy Israel.” That is it. King Cyrus in the biblical story is like President Trump. President Trump’s leadership and the amazing people he surrounded himself with acted brilliantly. The Secretary of War did a wonderful job expressing the spirit and the resolution of the fight.
So yes, the story repeats itself. It will end the same way with the Jews and the Americans happy and the regime gone, and the Iranian people freed. Cyrus let the Jews return to Israel to rebuild their second temple. We remember Cyrus and what the Iranian people did for the Jews. Now we are paying back our debt by releasing them from this evil regime. The Iranian people are very appreciative of what Israel is doing for them.
Larry Bernstein:
A few weeks ago, you spoke on this podcast for an episode entitled Defending Israel. You previously contrasted Israeli versus American decision making. You said that the Israeli leadership can discuss plans in the evening and make war in the morning. The Americans make decisions but going to battle has longer lead times. You mentioned after Pearl Harbor on December 7th, 1941, American forces did not go into battle until the invasion of Morocco in Operation Torch in November 1942, almost 11 months later.
Amir Avivi:
We planned for months. The US attack was supposed to be carried out Saturday evening. And then there was an opportunity in the morning based on intelligence to destroy the Iranian leadership, and Israel requested to do this attack earlier.
In the first four days, Israel conducted 5,000 attacks and within a day and a half, we controlled the areas inside Iran on the Western side, and we are attacking with our airplanes above the Tehran sky.
The US in the four days did 2000 attacks, but the US just started and now more and more. It is like a huge rock starting to move at the beginning slowly down the hill and gaining momentum.
Israel is running fast, attacking, attacking, attacking. The US has the power. They are bringing overwhelming force with strategic bombers: the B2, B1, and B52. They sank the whole Iranian Navy, all of it. 17 ships are in the bottom of the sea and a submarine. The US is amassing a huge force. It will take one more week, maybe more, to see the US in its full might.
Israel is already attacking at its maximum pace. the US has just started. We have a completely different culture and ways of doing things, but we managed sitting in the same war rooms, conducting together the operation making sure that we bring the advantage of each side. We are working together, and the combination is unbelievable.
Larry Bernstein:
I am perplexed by Iran’s decision to attack neutral countries since the beginning of the war, specifically their attack on the British military base in Cyprus and missile strikes at a dozen Arab states. Do you think this reflects a breakdown in the command structure?
Amir Avivi:
There’s hate between the Shias that the Sunnis, and the Iranians are happy to shoot at all the Sunni states. They want to drag as many countries as possible to create international pressure to stop the war. The contrary is happening. These countries are joining the fight. Even Britain and France now are more proactive and joining at least on the defense.
It is a big miscalculation by Iran not understanding the issues. This is moving towards a decisive win; everybody wants to be on the winner’s side.
They are trying to get oil prices to go up. They know that the American society is worried about the price of oil. They are trying to pressure President Trump’s through the oil prices. They try to close the Strait of Hormuz. Then they started shooting the oil fields and the refineries in different countries.
They are managing to bring up oil prices, but I think it is something that will change in the coming weeks as we destroy their capabilities to shoot at these countries, and we make sure that the Straits are open.
They are losing command and control and different units are taking initiative. It will take a few more days to dismantle more of their command and control, but eventually they are going to lose control and capabilities.
Larry Bernstein:
Before the Iraq war, the United States made diplomatic efforts to make sure that the Europeans and its other allies were on board. Maybe because of the surprise attack there was a disconnect between the Europeans and the Americans about this Iran war. Why have the Americans and the Israelis been less proactive with their European allies this time?
Amir Avivi:
President Trump lost faith in Europe, does not trust them. This explains why he did not share any plans with them. The response of Europe to the attack was weak, even disgraceful. And President Trump and his staff see Israel as a model ally. They want countries who are strong, independent, can defend themselves, bring value to the US and be willing to fight together. Not countries that are dependent and just use US resources. Europe is in a serious problem with a big Muslim minority with a culture that is distancing itself from patriotism, from willingness to fight and defending themselves. This is problematic.
Larry Bernstein:
Do you think that the Iranian attack on its Arab neighbors will ironically expand the Abraham Accords?
Amir Avivi:
Definitely. At the end of this war, there will be a big alliance. Many countries will join the US and Israel and there will be a big expansion of the Abraham Accords and this will bring stability and prosperity to the region. I saw a poll that half of the Americans are not supportive of this war. I believe that in a few months when we see the results of the war with peace agreements, people will view it completely differently and will understand how big of an achievement this is.
Larry Bernstein:
With each war, there is radical changes in technology. What have we seen so far that would have surprised military leaders in the advancement of military technology on the battlefield?
Amir Avivi:
AI is huge issue with intelligence real time to shoot instantly. For situational awareness, for targeting, all these processes require AI to take in many sources and combine them very fast and get relevant analysis of what you are seeing and what you need to do.
Air defense that has become crucial, and in Europe they are purchasing huge amounts of air defense from Israel. Tanks were important in the war on the ground with Hamas and Hezbollah. And as we speak, our tanks are operating in Lebanon and soon will operate in Gaza. It is always a combination of capabilities.
Larry Bernstein:
After 10/7, the Israelis supported efforts by the opposition to Hamas to take over the leadership of Gaza, but that did not happen. Why do you think it will be different this time in Iran?
Amir Avivi:
Hamas is still controlling half of Gaza, but not for long. After Israel win the war with Iran, we will go back to Gaza and finish the job and dismantle this organization and change the governance in Gaza. As for Iran, Israel and the US are attacking fiercely the Revolutionary Guard, the police, dismantling all these organizations that terrorize the Iranian people. And once you degrade them dramatically this will give the Iranian people the ability to go to the street without being butchered. The Iranian people will have to take their future in their hands, go to the streets and move towards a change of regime.
Larry Bernstein:
How does that all happen?
Amir Avivi:
President Trump and Netanyahu will tell them, “This is your moment. We are here with our airplanes, protecting you,” maybe weaponize them. The people will understand and claim their freedom from this regime.
Larry Bernstein:
This entire unwinding of Iran and its proxies began with Hamas’s surprise attack on 10/7.
Amir Avivi:
Definitely. The 7th of October was terrible, on a biblical level, but it gave us the opportunity to change our fate and future. The first day Prime Minister Nathaniel spoke that we are going to change the Middle East, Israel together with the US.
We will remember this as the moment where this Lion of Judah woke up and started fighting back. Yes, it is a long and complicated war, but we are moving steadily towards the biggest win the Jewish people have had ever in their history. We are lucky to have a president like Trump that understands the dangers and shows leadership and fights for freedom for the US and for Israel. Iran is a huge danger to the globe and to the US. And the fact that we have the privilege to fight together to win decisively, this is great for both countries. It is an historical moment.
Larry Bernstein:
Thanks to Amir for joining us. If you missed the previous podcast, the topic was Bolton on the War in Iran.
John Bolton was the National Security Advisor in Trump’s first term. John justified the war in Iran from a policy perspective and discussed its legality under international law and under the US constitution. He also explained how if he were in charge what his next steps would be diplomatically and about working with the Democrats in Congress. We also discussed what will likely happen after the fighting stops.
You can find our previous episodes and transcripts on our website
whathappensnextin6minutes.com. Please follow us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Thank you for joining us today, goodbye.
Check out our previous episode, Bolton on the War in Iran, here.
